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Central Banks into the Breach

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Central Banks into the Breach
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Pierre L. Siklos1 editions

"Central banks play an important role in the course of national economies and the global economy. Their leaders are regularly feted or vilified, their policy pronouncements highly anticipated and routinely scrutinized. This is all the more so since the global financial crisis. The past fifteen years in monetary policy is essentially the story of two mistakes and one triumph, argues Pierre L. Siklos, a professor of economics at Wilfrid Laurier University. One mistake was that central bankers underestimated the connection between finance and the real economy. The other was a failure to realize how inter-connected the world's financial system had become. The triumph, in turn, was the recognition that price stability is a desirable objective. As a result of the financial crisis, central banks stepped into the breach to provide services other institutions were unwilling or unable to carry out. In doing so, the responsibilities for governing monetary policy and financial system stability became more elastic without due consideration for the appropriateness of the division of responsibilities. Central banks no longer influence just prices they also change financial system quantities. This leads to rising policy uncertainty. And low economic growth, an insufficiently unsubstantiated expansion of central bank responsibilities, and worries over future financial instability are sources of concern that contribute to a loss of confidence in the monetary authorities around the globe. Because no coherent new framework for central bank policy has since emerged, central banking is not broken, but it is in need of repair. Central Banks into the Breach provides an overarching analysis of the current and vulnerable state of central banks and offers potential solutions to stabilize the uncertain future of central banking."-- "The events of the past decade and a half are the story of two mistakes, one triumph, with the real possibility either of another mistake. Prior to the global financial crisis of 2007-9 many central bankers were dismissive about the need to worry about financial instability. The connection between finance and the real economy was severed. The decades since the 1980s saw several financial crises around the world with little lasting impact on the global economy. The second mistake was a failure to adequately appreciate how inter-connected the world's financial system had become. The fact that the crisis originated in the advanced world only increased the effect it had on the global economy. The triumph was the widespread acceptance by central banks, governments, and the public, that price stability is a desirable objective. Whether the desire to pursue low and stable inflation is cause or consequence of economic performance during the two decades that preceded the crisis remains hotly debated. There is also the prospect of another shock to come given the strategies adopted by central banks in the advanced economies. Whether it will be a positive one, or presage another major crisis, remains to be seen. The latter is more likely since the outlook at the end of 2016 is clouded by two sets of opposing forces. On the domestic front key advanced economies face a difficult exit from ultra-loose monetary policies. At the international tensions between central banks and the governments they are directly accountable to have heightened considerably. The book tells this story and provides some ideas about where to go from here in the area of central banking"--

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  • Pierre L. Siklos

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